From the perspective of supply and demand, can 60K become the bear bottom of this round? The study of changes in the supply curves of LTH and STH essentially involves observing the supply-demand relationship in the market. Especially for the continuation and transformation of the bear market process, it provides us with extremely high reference value from a data perspective. Let's take a look at two real cases: Case 1: In this bear market, LTH's net holdings have rebounded from 2/10 and have increased by 32.40000 BTC as of April 30th; During the same period, STH's holdings decreased by 18.4W coins (converted to new LTH holdings); The difference between 32.4-18.4=14w chips is the increase in holdings by the "old LTH" (Figure 1). So, a significant contribution to the increase in LTH's net holdings comes from the holding of STH; Of course, the increase in holdings of 'old LTH' is also an undeniable force. Case 2: In the previous cycle, the net position of LTH hit bottom and rebounded from July 23, 2022, and then suddenly decreased again during the FTX storm. From 11/06 to 11/24, LTH decreased by 7.2w units; However, during the same period, STH increased by 36w units (Figure 1). The reduction in LTH was, of course, sent to STH; But where did the difference of 28.8 million come from? This is a transfer that occurred from addresses such as miners and exchanges (the FTX storm has caused people to have extreme distrust of custody platforms), thus adding to STH's chips. ----------------------------------- So, usually the reversal of LTH net holdings trend (from decline to rise) will always occur earlier than BTC's bear market bottoming out. When the pressure on the supply side gradually weakens, even if demand does not immediately recover, the bottom range can still be slowly constructed. July 29, 2019- LTH net holdings hit bottom and rebounded. If there is no 3.12 event, then the bottom range will be between $7000 and $9000 thereafter (Figure 2). 2022.7.23- LTH net holdings hit bottom and rebounded. If there is no FTX breakout, then the bottom range will be $19000- $22000 thereafter. Similarly, on February 10, 2026, LTH net holdings hit bottom and rebounded. If we don't consider whether there will be any black swan in the later stage, then $62000- $65000 may be the bottom range of this bear market, or infinitely close to the bottom. For most buddies, they don't need to figure out what the underlying logic is, just know: The increase in LTH net holdings represents more STH (new players) holding chips without selling, while LTH (believers) continue to increase their holdings. The inevitable result it brings is the rise of the bottom and the acceleration of the process, therefore, the transformation of supply and demand relationship is also the most noteworthy core data in a bear market.