1. Trends don't reverse easily. In April, I kept the possibility of a rebound open, but after it actually occurred, I judged that a quicker additional decline early in April would have been more desirable. I viewed that rebound not as a trend reversal, but as a technical bounce within the ongoing downtrend. The more expectations built up during such a move, the larger the eventual shock would likely be. 2. My view remains unchanged. I continue to analyze the Bitcoin market based on a consistent framework and respond accordingly. I also always make my conclusions clear. If I’m wrong, I admit it outright; if not, I say so plainly. I believe this approach has helped me build trust, and I always aim to present a clear directional view. 3. The current Bitcoin price action looks similar to the pattern seen around last year’s peak.The market is creating the illusion that the trend has already reversed, encouraging bearish investors to capitulate. That precise point is exactly what the dominant players are aiming for, and this process is currently unfolding in an extremely aggressive manner. It’s a classic move designed to shake investor psychology. 4. Investors now have access to far more information than in the past, and market participants have become more sophisticated. Consequently, the market itself moves in more complex and refined ways. I remain cautious of the potential for a significant downside shock. If the price rises instead, it may mean I have overcomplicated my interpretation of the market. However, it’s worth noting that the consolidation phase around last year’s peak showed a similar structure.(mignolet)