Natural Trading Evening Market Insights

May 4th - BTC Market Interpretation and Prediction Ladies and gentlemen, let's first take a look at some core data and market structure Core data of the market: As of the evening of May 4th, Bitcoin has fallen from its intraday high of 80590 and is currently consolidating in the range of 79000-79500. The daily closing long upper shadow line shows heavy selling pressure above 80000. 24-hour short liquidation amounted to approximately 302 million US dollars, accounting for 81.6%. Binance's consecutive two-hour single buying volume totaled approximately 1.98 billion US dollars, which is a breakthrough driven by active buying. The ETF investor cost baseline provided structural support before breaking through. Current market structure: Buyer Power: Spot ETFs have seen net inflows for five consecutive weeks, with a single day of $630 million on May 1st. Institutional buying provides structural bottom support. Seller pressure: Approximately $100 million worth of selling walls are piled up in the range of 78500-80000, causing prices to be repeatedly blocked. The funding rate remains negative (approximately -2% annualized), but the long leverage in the derivatives market has not expanded synchronously. The proportion of 6-12 month supply has risen to 27.5%, and chips are transitioning from short-term to medium-term holders. Next, let's deduce two scenarios for short-term market trends: Scenario 1 (probability about 55%): Stabilize in the area of 78000-78500 and attack 80000-80500 again. Scenario 2 (probability about 35%): Directly short selling to 82000, quickly falling back after a surge. Scenario 3 (probability about 10%): After a false breakthrough, it falls back and retraces to 76000-77000. Below, my prediction for the BTC medium-term market remains unchanged, as always, without hesitation, no matter how others criticize me: At the weekly level, the fourth wave of rebound has been running for over 90 days, with a much longer time period than the second wave. The daily trading volume continues to shrink, with a significant deviation between volume and price. This is a typical characteristic of the rebound end. If the price rises to the 82000-84500 range, it will be the endpoint of the fourth wave at the weekly level. At that time, the power of long and short positions will undergo a fundamental transformation: long positions will take profits and sell, while the main force of short positions will enter the market. The CPI data in mid May is likely to be bearish, becoming a macro catalyst for the fifth wave of decline. The bearish trend in the midline direction remains unchanged, with a first target of 72000-75000 and an ultimate target of 45000-50000. The BTC short to medium trading strategies I recommend are for reference only and are not intended as investment advice Short term wait-and-see, the current profit and loss ratio is not good. If the rebound stabilizes at 78000-78300, you can take a light position and try long, with a target of 80000-80500 and a stop loss of 77500. We will not enter the market in advance until there is a stagflation signal in the 82000-83000 area, including mid line short positions. Finally, I still say the same thing: the direction of the midline remains unchanged, and the fourth wave of rebound has come to an end. Don't touch the top and short for now, patiently wait for the signal. The breakthrough of 80000 yuan is driven by active buying and has a relatively high technical structure. But the deviation between volume and price is still present, and whether the daily closing price can remain stable at 80000 is a confirmation signal. Go ahead and be cautious! ----Mr. Xiaolong, May 4th