The peak of the April tax season is over, and liquidity has shifted from tightening to marginal improvement (no longer significant draining, but rather slight stabilization). Looking at the Fed's H.4.1 report released last Friday, during the week ending April 29, the TGA saw its first noticeable decline (-$24 billion), directly releasing liquidity. Combined with RMP injections, this pushed reserves up by $1.7 billion within a week, successfully holding below the $2.9 trillion mark. In other words, the most severe liquidity drain phase of the April tax season (when the TGA rapidly climbed to near its peak) is now behind us. Although reserves are still below the psychological threshold of $3 trillion (a historically sensitive level), the short-term trend seems to have improved and is no longer in unilateral decline. Heading into May, the Treasury's TGA balance is likely to continue decreasing due to spending. The Treasury typically engages in large-scale spending in May (wages, Social Security, infrastructure, etc.), with the TGA balance expected to drop by $100-150 billion or even more → directly releasing an equivalent amount of liquidity into bank reserves. Coupled with the Fed's ongoing RMP injections ($25 billion/month), reserves are expected to rebound to the $3.0-3.1 trillion range by the end of May. Of course, we also need to watch today's quarterly borrowing estimate from the U.S. Treasury and Wednesday's quarterly refunding announcement to assess the Treasury's borrowing plans and the target size of the TGA account for the coming months. This will provide a better evaluation of fiscal efforts in Q2 and Q3. Overall, improving liquidity is still good news for risk assets like $BTC. There’s also the expectation of a clear bill passing in May: https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/2050431475053691131?s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A