Phyrex
Phyrex|5月 03, 2026 21:59
Although the peace talks between the U.S. and Iran haven’t been finalized yet, in order to control the surge in oil prices—especially with WTI recently surpassing $110—Trump publicly announced that starting Monday (Middle East time), measures will be taken to assist ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. While this doesn’t fundamentally resolve the issue of smooth passage through the Strait, there’s already an expectation of oil prices dropping. It’s likely we’ll see a decline in oil prices as soon as CME opens on Monday. The public shorting of WTI began when the U.S. and Iran agreed to a ceasefire. Although there’s now an expectation of oil prices falling, based on current performance, it’s likely to hover around $90, similar to the initial ceasefire phase. If we’re aiming to return to below $70, it’s probably going to take quite some time. So for this shorting phase, the first target is still $90—after that, we’ll reassess whether conditions support further shorting. The main reason is that when market expectations align, funding rates become extremely high, which isn’t conducive to holding positions long-term. If you’re planning to short WTI for the long term, it’s better to go through a brokerage. While there’s no leverage, the costs are much lower. The cost of full funding rates is a bit steep. Looking back at Bitcoin data, weekend liquidity is very low, trading volume is low, and turnover is low—nothing unusual there. Next, we’ll just have to wait and see how the U.S.-Iran peace talks progress next week. Bitget VIP: Lower fees, bigger perks.
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