小龙先生
小龙先生|5月 03, 2026 20:50
Bitcoin faces a potential short squeeze risk! The main downtrend will only begin after clearing out the shorts above $80K, due to volume-price divergence and insufficient spot buying power! 1) Funding rates and open interest The average 8-hour funding rate across the network remains around -0.0034%, consistently negative. Short positions are costly to hold. Open interest (OI) is fluctuating in the $38-40 billion range, still near historical highs. Negative funding rates and high OI indicate a classic "short squeeze" setup—short positions are accumulating costs, creating potential fuel for a squeeze. However, a short squeeze requires support from spot buying; it can't be determined solely by a reversal in funding rates. 2) Daily volume-price divergence and persistently weak spot trading volume! This rebound has been primarily driven by the futures market, while spot buying has lagged significantly, hitting multi-month lows. Trading volumes on several major exchanges have dropped sharply, with Binance's monthly volume down by about $25 billion. Daily trading volume has been gradually declining, showing volume-price divergence. After squeezing out the shorts above $80K, due to weak buying power and market maker manipulation, the weekly 4th wave will likely conclude, and the 5th wave main downtrend will begin. If Bitcoin's price surges above $80K due to a short squeeze, do NOT chase the rally, as a major trend reversal is highly likely to occur! For detailed market analysis, check out the article below .
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