The progress of the US Iran negotiations, a week has passed and the US and Iran are still in a tug of war. According to Al Jazeera's report, Iran's latest negotiation plan has undergone significant changes compared to the plan from a week ago 1. The first phase proposed by Iran a week ago did not include any progress on the Strait of Hormuz, while the plan proposed today already includes: Gradually lift the blockade on Iranian ports in a manner consistent with the gradual opening of the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran responsible for clearing mines Readjust the compensation and other contents previously proposed by the Iranian side 2. Previously, the nuclear program was proposed in the third phase, and in the latest plan, the nuclear program has already been mentioned in the second phase. And it's also a very detailed measure. Including discussions on the complete cessation of uranium enrichment within a maximum period of 15 years, and the resumption of uranium enrichment activities by Iran based on the zero inventory principle after the specified deadline expires. At the same time, the proposal opposes the dismantling or destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities, while for existing highly enriched uranium inventories, it proposes options such as transferring them overseas or diluting the uranium enrichment ratio. What are the reasons for these changes? Personal perspective 1) Trump clearly rejected the previous Iranian plan, and Trump's original words are "unable to imagine that it will be accepted". Reason? Iran's actions towards humanity and the world over the past 47 years have not paid enough price; 2) This week, Trump wrote a letter to the Congress, announcing that "the hostilities with Iran have ended", which could be regarded as evading the deadline of the war authorization on May 1, but later added that he would not "withdraw early, so that the problem will reappear in three years". Obtained greater freedom in action; 3) Continuing to block Iranian ports, the drawbacks for Iran have become apparent, with oil storage facilities almost full (onshore storage and Iranian cruise ship storage in the Persian Gulf), while the Ministry of Finance continues to intensify sanctions (designating bank networks, freezing cryptocurrencies). Previously, https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/2043326170750701849? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2tXolYcM-A, we discussed here that blocking is a clever trick. Lower the other party's expectations and let Iran know that your current plan is far from enough; Create uncertainty and make the other party more divided internally (hawks vs. compromisers); In addition, Trump also has two more carrier battle groups in his hands (the Ford has left the Middle East). In the past few weeks, he has supplied more ammunition: first, he talked about "possible resumption of attack" to force the other party to give in. From a personal perspective, the change of Iran's plan should have played a certain role in Iran's economic consumption war. Trump now wants to use economic consumption war to grind Iran, rather than immediately start again. Of course, it also depends on the specific terms Continuing to grind in the short term, economic consumption war+small action game. Both sides actually do not want to fully reopen the war now, and negotiations will continue through Pakistan. Iran may take small steps to loosen its grip on the strait issue (such as releasing a few more ships), while the United States continues to block and impose sanctions pressure. Grind until there are even greater concessions. Beware that Trump thinks that he has not yet got the decent results he thinks, and the situation is escalating again, of course, limited rather than large-scale. If upgrading, it should still be based on the idea of "using violence to promote negotiation". This week's market is quite interesting: 1) The oil price has returned to a high level, and the deal is that the war is not over yet, supply is becoming tight, and the real world may be short of oil. 2) But the stock market basically ignores the rise in oil prices. Personally, one thing is that the trading is driven by future expectations driven by performance, and technology companies have strong performance and a promising future; The second is the potential belief that the US and Iran can still reach a deal in the end. So ultimately, it depends on the progress of the negotiations. During the earnings season, the market first focuses on the earnings report. However, as the earnings season slowly passes, looking back, the Strait of Hormuz is still sealed off and continues to be suspended, which will ultimately affect the market. This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, titled 'Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading'