Weekend review: Is it highly likely that BTC prices will touch 80000 or even 81000 in the future? How to translate Based on the analysis of the latest three-dimensional integrated trading system and the current market structure, I have a core judgment for my friends as follows: The price of Bitcoin is likely to touch 80000 in the future, or even briefly puncture 81000. But this is not an active attack, but a passive triggering of the gap pulse. The probability of truly standing at 80000 is about 30%. 1、 Why is the price likely to reach 80000? Firstly, there has been an accumulation of approximately $4.48 billion in short clearing volume around 80000. A price breakthrough of 80000 yuan will trigger a series of short selling stop losses, forming a short-term short squeeze. This is not about how strong the bulls are, but about how crowded the bears are. If I were a Bitcoin market maker, before starting the weekly 5th wave of the main downtrend, I would first blow up the air force above and harvest the market liquidity! Are market makers really bad? The financial market is so cruel! Secondly, BTC has broken through the downward channel since its peak of 128000, and the next technical target is 80000. The position of the 1st axis of the Fibonacci ascending channel is around 79649, forming a technical resonance with 80000. Thirdly, ETF funds are flowing back. On May 1st, there was a net inflow of 630 million US dollars, marking two consecutive days of net inflows. The monthly inflow of nearly 2 billion US dollars established a medium-term bullish institutional tone. 2、 Why is 80000 yuan a strong resistance, with a high probability of falling after reaching it? Firstly, there is an option power grid upper limit around 80000. A call option with an exercise price of 80000 yuan on Deribit has accumulated $1.5 billion, and market makers must sell their stocks when the price rises to hedge. The higher the coin price, the heavier the selling pressure. Secondly, the baseline cost for short-term holders is between 78900-80000, with approximately 475000 BTC concentrated here, leading to a sharp increase in selling pressure during the unwinding process. The motivation for withdrawal exceeds the need for entry. Thirdly, the trading volume has severely shrunk, with retail investors absent. The 24-hour trading volume fell below $8 billion, hitting a new low since October 2023. Fourthly, short-term holders have transferred over 150000 BTC to the exchange in the past week, with potential selling pressure accumulating. After reaching the important checkpoint of 80000 to 81000, Duojun felt relieved and the fourth wave of dead cat rebound at the weekly level should also come to an end! Under extreme optimism, the dead cat rebounded to the ultimate rebound target price of 84500 US dollars. Personally, I predict that it will be difficult for many to reach! 3、 Three scenario trend deduction and probability Scenario A: Falling back after reaching 80000, with a probability of 50-55%. The price rebounded to 79500-80500, triggering a short stop loss to form a pulse, but the selling pressure and option hedging pushed the price back to 77000-78500. Scenario B: Direct callback cannot reach 80000, with a probability of 35-40%. The price has been repeatedly blocked in the range of 78000-79000, and has directly fallen back to test 75000-76000. Scenario C: Breaking through 80000 in volume to open up new space, with a probability of 10-15%. Continuous large inflows of ETFs combined with macroeconomic positive news beyond expectations are needed. We basically don't need to consider the situation of C anymore, because I predict that it is only the fourth wave of dead cat rebound at the weekly level, the bear market is still here, and the deep bear market has not yet arrived! 4、 The final core conclusion 80000 is a battleground for both long and short positions. In the short term, long positions are likely to be sucked up by the clearing volume of short positions, touching 80000 or even briefly puncturing 81000. But this is not a trend breakthrough, but a short squeeze pulse, and it is highly likely to quickly fall back after triggering. The real direction choice will come after the macro data is released in mid May, which is also the time window we anticipate for a significant change in Bitcoin's midline. Prior to this, the probability of forming a top structure around 80000 was much higher than the probability of breaking through and opening up a new trend. Be patient and wait for the nearest batting window, firmly believe that this is just the fourth wave of the weekly dead cat rebound and nearing its end! The bulls are at the end of their strength! Bitcoin BTC Market Analysis Mr. Xiaolong 80000