BTC back at $78,300 — Weekend market thoughts BTC pulled off a V-shaped move this week: On Wednesday, the Iran situation briefly smashed the price down to $75,500, but it bounced back to $78,300+ within three days, consolidating above $78,000 over the weekend. The good news is that ETF funds are aggressively increasing their positions. On May 1 alone, there was a net inflow of $630 million, with BlackRock contributing $284 million, now holding 810,000 BTC. For the entire month of April, ETF net inflows reached $2-2.4 billion, marking the best performance of the year. Institutions are genuinely buying, not just talking. The Clarity Act (U.S. Cryptocurrency Market Structure Bill) has also made substantial progress. The Senate just resolved a long-standing disagreement over stablecoin yields, and it could move to the Banking Committee for review as early as the second week of May. Galaxy’s Alex Thorn said the timeline is "imminently." This is a medium-term bullish factor for BTC — once the regulatory framework is in place, institutions will have fewer concerns about entering the market. The macro picture is a bit mixed. U.S. stocks are doing well — both the S&P and Nasdaq hit new highs, with strong earnings reports from Apple and Oracle driving five consecutive weeks of gains. But oil prices are still hovering around $110, and while Iran has paused hostilities and submitted a new proposal, Trump said he’s "not satisfied," so the situation isn’t fully resolved. The Fed’s late-April meeting revealed significant internal divisions, with the probability of a rate cut in June below 10%. The high-interest-rate environment isn’t changing anytime soon. Risks to watch: On-chain data shows that big whales transferred 10,000 BTC (around $760 million) to exchanges over the past week, indicating potential selling pressure. CNBC analysts also warned that this rebound is largely driven by futures, with spot buying not strong enough to sustain it, making a pullback more likely if the rally doesn’t go far. But honestly, I’m still leaning slightly bullish in the short term. The key reasons: The $75,500 level saw decisive buying support, ETF holdings are solid, and the Clarity Act expectations are still heating up. $80,000 is the psychological barrier for this round — if ETFs continue to show strong inflows early next week, we might test it again. Personally, I’ll hold and wait to see if $80K breaks. If it does, we’ll enter new territory; if not, it’ll keep grinding sideways.