Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari: "Why I dissented" He says the policy statement should signal the next rate move could be a cut or a hike given the broader range of outcomes from the Iran war. He lays out two modalities: a fairly quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which is what seems to be priced in by markets. Under that scenario, the Fed could hold rates where they are for an extended period and then cut rates gradually as the shock fades. The second—an extended closure and damage to energy and commodity infrastructure—could require rate hikes, “potentially a series of them … even at the risk of further weakness to the labor market” to keep expectations anchored.(Nick Timiraos)