Here’s a hot take: not even tax refund season could spark a wave of altcoin or meme coin hype. This pretty much proves that altcoins and meme coins have lost their appeal to retail investors. Tax refunds can be seen as a disguised form of liquidity injection for retail investors. The U.S. has already issued $296 billion in tax refunds, $42.9 billion more than the same period last year, averaging $3,275 per person. Millions of households received thousands of dollars in cash within a few weeks in April. This year’s tax refund scale is massive, mainly because many people overpaid taxes in 2025, and those refunds are concentrated this year. This sudden influx of cash actually has strong speculative potential for two reasons: 1. The funds arrive in a concentrated manner. 2. Many people view it as "extra money." For the average U.S. retail investor, moments where they suddenly have a few thousand dollars are rare. Salaries are paid gradually, not everyone gets bonuses, and borrowing costs are high. Tax refunds, as a one-time lump sum, can easily trigger speculative behavior. If someone receives a $3,275 tax refund, the amount they might be willing to risk on speculative bets could be $200, $500, or $1,000. This kind of money won’t yield much if invested in $BTC or $ETH, but it’s a decent gamble for meme coins, altcoins, or prediction markets. So here’s the question: if altcoins still don’t show any signs of life after the peak of tax refund season in April–May, aside from the portion of refunds consumed by rising oil prices, it only proves one thing—most retail investors are no longer willing to burn their cash on meme coins and altcoin markets. On top of that, with rate cuts still uncertain, the probability of a rate cut in 2026 has dropped to nearly 3%. Whether we’ll see a bull market driven by rate cuts this year is still up in the air. This crypto winter might really put the market through some serious pain.