Aaron Dishner|May 01, 2026 03:26
BTC bounced from the daily TBO fast line after a huge April close of +11.81%, but the bigger picture has not changed. May and June have historically been rough in bottom-year conditions, and BTC is still struggling with the weekly TBO fast line. A short-term bounce is possible, but I am still watching for a lower high, weaker volume, and the next move lower.
ETH still looks clearly weak after losing RSI support, with on-balance volume below its moving average and price now back under the daily TBO fast line. BTC dominance can still push higher even if BTC falls, stablecoin dominance is building a stronger structure, and TOTALES remains vulnerable after rejecting near the weekly fast line.
TradFi added a big macro wrinkle today. DXY dropped, USDJPY had a sharp move lower as the yen pumped, and Japan intervention risk is back on the table heading into Golden Week. That kind of currency stress can spill across global markets, while gold, silver, and uranium are bouncing and oil looks overextended after a huge move.
For the watchlist, I reviewed DOGE, SKY, APT, ZRO, HYPE, NEAR, RENDER, DCR, AERO, ZBCN, PI, STABLE, MON, XTZ, TAO, MORPHO, ALGO, PENGU, H, ZEC, BAS, APLD, CRCL, and more. A few charts still have tradable bounces, but many are showing lower highs, TBO close long structures, bearish divergence clusters, or exhaustion risk. Stay patient, protect capital, and do not confuse a bounce with a confirmed trend reversal.
00:00 BTC Bounce, April Close, and May Risk
04:28 ETH Still Looks Weak
05:50 BTC Dominance and Stablecoin Dominance
08:28 TOTALES and Market-Wide Structure
09:34 DXY, USDJPY, and Japan Intervention Risk
15:52 S&P, Dow, Nvidia, VIX, and Nikkei
18:29 Oil, Gold, Silver, and Uranium
20:03 Better Traders Club, TBO, Kraken, and Toobit
22:20 Altcoin Picks and Trade Setups
35:00 ALGO, PENGU, H, and Momentum Risk
38:00 ZEC, BAS, APLD, CRCL, and Final Picks(Aaron Dishner)
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