𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂|5月 01, 2026 00:12
It is self interest that perpetuates the very system people say is dying. More dollar denominated debt outstanding floats between entities outside the US than the total quantum of domestic debt. There is no elegant exit, and network strength can supersede other toxic factors. That's why the US can swing its stick and induce complicity from its trade partners. The system cannot end without a catastrophic global default across virtually all borders. Which suggests that the US cannot durably resolve its trade deficits and industrial stagnation without the liquidation of a majority of the world's assets.
The US is now in the process of trying to push China out of its system, knowing that they cannot be brought to heel. That is why they have been pushing their allies to increase arms and buy more US weapons. That is why defense agreements have been strengthened with Asian partners. This has far reaching implications for nations that rely on trade with China.
We are in the early innings of what is likely to be a long, tumultuous divorce between the world's two great powers. The freedom of capital to choose its home will continue eroding. The aspirations of the two nations are irreconcilable. Everyone will be forced to choose a side, one way or the other. Financial incentives will dominate.(𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂)
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