Phyrex|4月 30, 2026 20:57
Today, WTI's oil prices have slightly decreased, but as long as they remain above $100, it is no longer a comfortable position for inflation. Many people may think that as long as oil prices do not continue to soar, market pressure will ease. But in reality, the most troublesome part of oil prices is not how much they rise in a day, but how long they remain high.
If WTI only surges above $100 for a short period of time and then quickly returns below $90, then the market can understand it as a short-term risk premium brought about by geopolitics. But if WTI remains above $100 for a long time, it will begin to transmit to inflation layer by layer through gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel, shipping, logistics, chemical, and agricultural transportation costs.
Nowadays, gasoline prices in the United States have significantly increased, and regular gasoline has once again entered the range of over $4 per gallon. Although this price will not cause an immediate collapse of the US economy, it is already enough to make ordinary families feel the pressure. Spending more than ten dollars on a single refueling may not seem like much, but for low - and middle-income families, it is the most direct cash flow squeeze. If there is more fuel money, the money for catering, entertainment, retail, and tourism will naturally decrease.
More importantly, the rise in diesel prices will be more troublesome than gasoline. Gasoline affects consumer perception, while diesel affects the entire logistics system. Truck transportation, ports, cold chain, building materials, and agricultural product distribution all rely on diesel. If diesel prices remain high, they will eventually become a secondary transmission of commodity prices, service prices, and enterprise costs.
This is not a good thing for both Bitcoin and the US stock market. Because high oil prices will push up inflation expectations again, and an increase in inflation expectations will suppress expectations of interest rate cuts. If the expectation of interest rate cuts is suppressed, the actual interest rate will not be easy to go down, and the valuation logic of risk assets will be impacted.
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