Analysis: Polymarket does not mandate identity verification or address broader insider trading issues, with a few wallets seizing the majority of profits On April 30th, according to CoinDesk, the latest report from the non-profit research organization Anti Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) shows that Polymarket, a prediction market platform, has highly concentrated profits, and there may be broader insider trading issues than previous insider bets on the Venezuela raid. After analyzing 435000 settled markets with a cumulative trading volume of 54.4 billion US dollars from January 2021 to mid March 2026, it was found that low probability bets related to government decision-making in military, defense, and other markets had abnormally high winning rates. Among them, the average success rate of such "unpopular bets" in political markets was about 14%, while the success rate of some cases in military related contracts exceeded 50%. Taking the June 2025 US airstrike on Iran as an example, in the hours leading up to the attack, 19 low probability bets with a total amount of $164000 were concentrated to buy the "YES" contract that was ultimately cashed out. Eight wallets profited a total of approximately $1.8 million, with a single wallet earning nearly $500000. ACDC suggests that Polymarket should enforce identity verification, set conditional payments for suspicious bets, restrict markets where the outcome is determined by a few individuals, and reduce overly detailed contract designs.