BTC Evening Analysis | April 30, 2026 In the early hours of the morning, the Federal Reserve announced that it would hold its fire and maintain interest rates at 3.50% -3.75%, fully in line with expectations. But what really made the market nervous was the details of this FOMC. First of all, let's focus on the key point: the voting result was 8:4, setting a record for the highest number of opposition votes since 1992. Four voting committee members openly voiced their opposition - Miran advocated for a rate cut, while the other three refused to even include the "loose leaning" in their statement. Powell spoke hawkishly at the "Last Dance" press conference: inflation remains high, oil prices are rising, and the promise to drop to 2% "never ends". At the same time, crude oil surged sharply, with WTI soaring to $106.88 overnight. What does this mean for BTC? It's simple - interest rate expectations are repriced. The market used to fantasize about a rate cut within the year, but now the probability of a rate cut in June is only 2%. The biggest fear of risky assets is' higher for longer '. BTC fell from $79K to around $76K today, and this is the direct reason. But we cannot just be bearish. BTC rose 16% for the entire month of April, with a net inflow of $1.7 billion into ETFs, the highest monthly inflow since October last year. Institutional buying is real, as BlackRock's IBIT holdings account for nearly 7% of the total BTC supply. MicroStrategy spent another $2.54 billion on buying coins. This level of capital inflow will not disappear just because of one FOMC. So the current situation is a tug of war between two forces: one is macro level interest rate suppression and war premium (the Iran War is not over, and the Strait of Hormuz is still blocked), and the other is institutional level funds continuing to take advantage. Short term judgment: biased correction. The resistance level of $80K has been continuously impacted but has not been successful. After falling back to $76K today, we will see if $75K can hold on. If oil prices continue to rise, emotions will still be under pressure. But in the medium term, I am not pessimistic - as long as ETFs continue to flow in and institutions use real money to support themselves, a range below $75K is a good range to undertake. Summary: Be cautious in the short term and avoid chasing high prices; Mid term callback layout. The judgment of whether to go up or down - tonight is bearish, but after the drop, it's actually an opportunity. BTC Bitcoin Federal Reserve FOMC