HTX DeepThink: The Federal Reserve's power transfer and policy divergence have led to a complex pricing framework for the cryptocurrency market According to TechFlow, on April 30th, Chloe (@ Chloe Talk1), a columnist for HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that the current Federal Reserve is entering a phase of "policy path uncertainty+power structure reshaping", and its impact on the cryptocurrency market has shifted from a single interest rate expectation to a more complex liquidity and risk pricing framework. On the one hand, the current system represented by Jerome Powell clearly sends a signal of no short-term interest rate cuts. Against the backdrop of rising energy prices, core inflation stickiness remaining at around 3%, and tariff transmission, real interest rates may remain high or even tighten further, directly suppressing the Beta expansion space of the cryptocurrency market, especially constraining tracks that rely on leverage and liquidity (Perp, DeFi). On the other hand, Kevin Warsh, who is about to take over, is promoting a decision-making mechanism that is more divided and openly debated, which means that future policy signals will no longer be singular and stable, but will present a multi-source game state. This signal diversification will significantly increase market volatility, making the interest rate expectation curve more difficult to price, thereby raising the discount rate of risk assets. For the cryptocurrency market, macro liquidity is difficult to provide a clear direction in the short term, and trend trends rely more on structural narratives such as RWA, on chain returns, trading infrastructure, etc., rather than being driven solely by loose expectations. At the same time, if the hawkish consensus within the Federal Reserve strengthens and political intervention intensifies, leading to a challenge to its independence, it may trigger a repricing of the US dollar credit and long-term interest rate system, which in turn provides medium - to long-term narrative support for non sovereign assets such as BTC. From a market observation perspective, the winning rate of unilateral bets on macro easing in the current environment is limited, and structural opportunities may be more worthy of attention. Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment product.