When Walsh takes office in May, he will face a tricky composition of the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve: 1. Today's Federal Reserve interest rate decision statement shows us the internal divisions within the Fed's decision-making team regarding the direction of interest rates. Three officials cast a rare vote against the policy statement, explicitly opposing language that suggests future interest rate cuts. There is a disagreement among four officials as a whole: three committee members oppose the wording of retaining the tendency to cut interest rates, while council member Milan urges a 25 basis point rate cut. 2. The openness of internal disagreements within the policy committee stems from concerns about persistent inflation and soaring energy prices. Since its three consecutive interest rate cuts last autumn, the Federal Reserve's post meeting statement has retained the phrase 'ultimately further rate cuts would be appropriate'. But at this week's meeting, three officials voted against this statement, hoping to send a different signal to the public that the next step could also be to raise interest rates. Powell stated that most officials are not yet ready to change their wording, but the emergence of the opposition vote indicates that those who support a shift are becoming increasingly impatient. 3. This is the first time since 1992 that the Federal Open Market Committee has had a four person disagreement. This vote is not only a signal to the incoming Walsh, but also a declaration to the market and government that the Federal Open Market Committee is a credible and independent democratic institution. If Walsh wants to cut interest rates in the future, he must first persuade his colleagues. 4. Powell's retention as a member of the Federal Reserve Board is another variable, at least in terms of personnel, which limits the possibility of Trump planting cronies on the board. Moreover, after eight years in the position of Federal Reserve Chairman, although Powell himself said he would keep a low profile, his attitude should still affect the opinions of many FOMC members. 5. The statement from the Federal Reserve regarding inflation has been changed from "slightly high" to "high", indicating their increasing concern about the potential transmission effects of price levels and oil prices. From a personal perspective, the ultimate policy direction still depends on the inflation trend, which in turn depends on the duration of high oil prices. And there is no doubt that the job market will become weaker (naturally due to the wave of layoffs driven by AI). This means that oil prices and inflation may return to the forefront in the short term, and macro sensitive assets will be affected, while assets with strong fundamentals will be much less affected or even ignored.