[Institution: Theoretically, the Federal Reserve should cut rates twice, but the reality depends on oil prices and cooperation from Trump] According to a report by Jinse Finance on April 30, CICC stated that, from a fundamental theoretical perspective, the Federal Reserve should and needs to cut interest rates by approximately two times. This is one of the reasons why we are more optimistic about rate cuts compared to the market. As long as oil prices do not remain consistently above $100 until the end of the year, the high base effect driving inflation downward could provide room for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. However, in practice, this requires cooperation from oil prices and Trump. The stalemate in the Iran situation leading to persistently high oil prices, as well as Powell's reluctance to act due to concerns over the investigation, causing divisions within the Federal Reserve, are issues that cannot be resolved solely by Waller taking over in June. The key lies with Trump—if a swift compromise is reached and the investigation into Powell is completely ended, the outlook for rate cuts will gradually open up. (Jin10)