[Huatai Securities: The Threshold for Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 Has Increased] Jin10 News, April 30 – A research report by Huatai Securities states that looking ahead, internal divisions within the Federal Reserve and Powell's continued tenure as a governor have raised the threshold for Fed rate cuts. Although the Fed's March dot plot indicates one rate cut in 2026, considering that three voting members explicitly opposed retaining the "easing bias" for further rate cuts in the statement, Powell's continued tenure as a Fed governor, the recurring tensions in the Middle East, and the subsequent rise in oil prices, Huatai Securities believes the threshold for Fed rate cuts in 2026 has increased. It does not rule out the possibility that the Fed may remove rate cut guidance in the dot plot at the June meeting. Looking ahead, easing tensions in the Middle East could drive oil prices lower, combined with the fading impact of tariffs, which may lead to a moderate decline in U.S. inflation. Marginal cooling in nonfarm payroll growth in the second quarter and a seasonal uptick in the unemployment rate could create conditions for 1–2 rate cuts in the second half of the year, but the uncertainty surrounding the rate cut outlook has increased.