Seth
Seth|4月 29, 2026 17:49
Unpopular Opinion 💵💵💵 The US started a war with Iran in February 2026. Two industries have been printing money ever since. > The Strait of Hormuz the chokepoint for 20% of the world's oil got shut down almost overnight. > Global buyers panicked. > They needed oil. Fast. From somewhere safe. > There was only one seller big enough to fill the gap. > US crude exports just hit a record 6 million barrels a day. > Brent crude surged past $115 a barrel. Up from the $60s just months before. > The Permian Basin is running at full tilt. Gulf Coast terminals are maxed out. > American oil is now the most strategically valuable commodity on earth. The energy industry didn't start the war. But they didn't complain about it either. Then there's defense. > The day the bombs started falling on Tehran, Lockheed Martin jumped 3.4%. > RTX (Raytheon) jumped 4.7%. > Northrop Grumman jumped 6%. > Lockheed's stock is up nearly 40% since January alone. These aren't paper gains. This is real business. > Raytheon is ramping Tomahawk production 2-4x current rates. > Lockheed signed a deal to quadruple THAAD interceptor output from 96 to 400 per year. Each one costs $12.77 million. > The Pentagon budget for 2026 is a record $901 billion. Trump wants $1.5 trillion by 2027. > Lockheed Martin alone is sitting on a record $194 billion order backlog. > RTX just raised its full-year revenue forecast after Q1 came in 9% higher year-on-year. The Pentagon's own Secretary of Defense summed up the business model perfectly. "It takes money to kill bad guys." Morgan Stanley sent a note to clients the week the war started. It said investors should "consider increasing exposure around defense, security, aerospace and industrial resilience." The greatest risk to these stocks? Peace. When ceasefire talks begin, investors in defense firms sell. Analysts are already on record saying there's no imminent threat of that happening. The US went to war with Iran. Oil went vertical. Defense went vertical. The bill goes to the taxpayer. The profits go elsewhere. Video from Forbes(Seth)
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