BTC is hovering around $77K tonight and has hardly moved in the past 24 hours. But the outside world is actually quite lively. Let's talk about war first. WSJ reports that the United States is preparing to extend its blockade of Iranian ports. Today, Trump posted an AI image with a gun on Truth Social, urging Iran to "get smart soon". Brent crude oil has broken through $115, and WTI has also risen to $103- coupled with the announcement of UAE's withdrawal from OPEC, the energy sector is now a heavyweight combination punch. The Strait of Hormuz is still largely paralyzed and there is no sign of easing in the short term. Speaking of macro level. The biggest issue today is the Fed's interest rate decision, which is likely to remain unchanged at 3.5% -3.75%. But the key point is that this is likely to be Powell's last press conference as chairman - Kevin Warsh is about to take office. Inflation has rebounded to 3.3% due to the war, but employment is also weakening, leaving the Fed in a dilemma. The market is also watching to see what uncertainty will be brought about by the change of coach in the future. In terms of the cryptocurrency industry, Robinhood's financial report shows that its cryptocurrency revenue has dropped by 47% month on month, and its stock price has plummeted. http://Pump.fun We burned $370 million to launch a repurchase plan. Eric Trump and Forbes engaged in a heated argument over the American Bitcoin incident. The overall feeling is that the triple environment of war, inflation, and Fed reshuffle is not friendly to risk assets. BTC lacks ammunition for short-term upward breakthroughs, but there are buying opportunities around $75K. I am cautious and tend to believe that in the short term, it will continue to fluctuate weakly in the range of $75K - $78K, with a slightly higher probability of continuing to try. However, on the other hand, if there is any sudden ceasefire news and oil prices drop, BTC may actually have a chance to rebound. Tonight's focus will be on the tone of the Fed's press conference.