QCP: BTC enters range oscillation, low funding rates, and continuous narrowing of volatility On April 29th, according to QCP Capital's market report, as the geopolitical premium gradually subsided last week, market sentiment turned cautious, and investors' attention refocused on policy direction, interest rate path, and economic growth prospects. The stock market is hovering around recent highs, but lacks the drive to break through upwards. The decision of the Federal Reserve FOMC will be announced today, and the suspension of interest rate hikes is the basic expectation of the market. However, due to the lack of new CPI and employment data after the last meeting, the market is highly sensitive to Powell's statement. Any hawkish signal may quickly reprice the front-end interest rate and tighten financial conditions. At the same time, the market is increasingly concerned about potential changes in the leadership of the Federal Reserve, and Kevin Warsh's voice in predicting the market is growing louder. His hawkish stance on inflation and skepticism towards quantitative easing differ significantly from the current policy style. If he takes over, liquidity driven assets may face pressure, and the cryptocurrency market is particularly sensitive to the strengthening of real interest rates and the US dollar. In terms of Bitcoin, after experiencing strong performance supported by the inflow of ETF funds and the continuous establishment of institutional positions in April, the current price has entered a range of fluctuations, with low funding rates and continuous narrowing of volatility. The market as a whole is in a wait-and-see mode. QCP believes that the next directional trend of Bitcoin will depend more on signals from the Federal Reserve and macro data, rather than the flow of the cryptocurrency market itself. In addition, the release of technology stock earnings season and data such as PCE and GDP price index will further test the validity of the "soft landing" narrative.