
Phyrex|Apr 29, 2026 09:08
Some of the questions from friends are pretty good. Looking at it now, it seems like funds have shifted from net outflow to net inflow. So does this mean the upward trend for Bitcoin will change?
From my personal perspective, data only reflects what has happened in the past. It's hard to predict the future, or rather, data represents predictions under normal circumstances.
For example, the drop in April 2025 was due to Trump's tariff war, and the subsequent rise was because Trump changed his initial tariff stance, which was positive for the market, leading to the increase.
The current rise, however, is more due to the ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. The market sees this as positive, expecting oil prices to drop, inflation to stop rising, and recession probabilities to decrease, which leads to a large influx of funds.
But if we assume that Iran and the U.S. start fighting again tomorrow, or even escalate into war, then funds will likely retreat, and naturally, the market will worsen, causing BTC prices to drop.
When talking purely about trends, it depends on whether you're looking at the long-term or short-term. In the long-term, the U.S. will eventually enter a rate-cutting cycle—this is certain, though the timing is unclear. Based on economic cycles, a low-interest-rate cycle is bound to come, and low interest rates are generally positive for risk markets.
In the short-term, however, there are many constraints, such as oil prices, geopolitical conflicts, tariffs, monetary policies, and so on.