Is spring still far away when the first seed breaks through the soil? Since the investor confidence index fell into the red "pessimistic zone" on November 10, 2023, after 170 days, the first "yellow" signal finally appeared yesterday! Yellow represents the 'hesitation zone', which is the intermediate transition stage from 'panic and pessimism' to 'confidence and optimism'. Compared to the previous cycle, the first appearance of the yellow signal was 106 days after the confidence index fell into the red zone, while the second appearance was 322 days. It is obvious that our current position is more like the "second time" of the previous round, rather than the "first time". The span of the bear market is becoming shorter and the progress is getting faster. However, the hesitation zone is also divided into "above water" and "below water", with "above water" being above the zero axis, which is usually the starting point for bullish trends. And 'underwater' is the critical point for market selection direction. For example, in the previous cycle, after entering the hesitation zone underwater in April and November 2022, both times they chose to continue the pullback. Of course, it may not be the same this time. So don't ask me 'bullish or bearish'? When the entire market is hesitating, there is a 50-50 chance of success. If you think historical experience can be used for reference, then go short. If you want to wait for more certain signals, then wait until you enter the 'water' before going long. Last year it was a rainy day today, which doesn't mean it's also raining this year, but at least we can judge that it's unlikely to snow because spring is coming soon!