Macro key week, please elaborate on the important macro events of this week. This week directly determines the overall risk appetite of cryptocurrency assets for the entire second quarter, with the core time point being April 30th. Due to the risk of inflation reigniting caused by geopolitical conflicts, expectations of interest rate cuts are widely collapsing, The Federal Reserve will be conflicted about whether the originally scheduled easing cycle in 2026 will be indefinitely postponed. Of course, we all know that the culprit behind the expected reversal is crude oil, Affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, energy prices are expected to soar by 24% in 2026. When the situation worsens further, Brent crude oil will rise to the warning line of $115 per barrel, which will then lead to global inflation anxiety. War drives up oil prices, leading to a sharp increase in production and transportation costs for businesses. This pressure is ultimately passed on to consumers, causing inflation expectations to become unanchored. According to survey data from the University of Michigan, the one-year inflation expectation in the United States jumped from 3.8% to 4.7% in a single month. In theory, when most consumers believe that prices will continue to rise, the Federal Reserve will never dare to cut interest rates, resulting in high yields on US Treasury bonds and directly suppressing the valuation of all high-risk assets. -Waller proposed in his speech on April 17th that energy prices have already raised the CPI for March. -In addition, the minutes of the FOMC meeting in March indicated that high oil prices are delaying the process of inflation falling towards the 2% target. So April 30th is destined to be the most important macroeconomic pressure day of the second quarter: 1. FOMC resolution announcement and Powell's speech (02:00/02:30 Beijing time on April 30th). Powell's current situation has no room for maneuver, and he cannot say the same nonsense as Trump that the inflation problem has been solved and he is ready to cut interest rates. The most dovish statement is roughly: we need more time to observe. Of course, the market is most averse to observation, and capital is averse to uncertainty. In fact, based on my observation, Bitcoin has experienced a decline in 7 out of the past 8 FOMC meetings. As long as Powell does not give a clear dovish commitment, the market will automatically price itself as hawkish, because traders have developed a muscle memory of raising their risk exposure before macro events and rapidly reducing it afterwards over the course of more than a year. 2. GDP+PCE+ECI data (20:30 Beijing time on April 30th). PCE is the core inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve values the most, reaching as high as 2.8% in February. ECI is the employment cost index, the best indicator to measure the real cost of labor, and GDP is easy to understand. These three sets of numbers represent growth, inflation, and wages, respectively. First, let's talk about the worst-case scenario. If GDP continues to grow, PCE rises, and ECI does not decline or even rise, then the Federal Reserve will completely lose the reason and legitimacy to rescue the market this year, and the macro market will abandon the illusion of low-cost liquidity. In fact, we have always said that the big one hasn't arrived yet, but in reality, we can already feel that the storm is getting closer and closer to us. Bitcoin is currently stable and is temporarily supported by spot ETF funds. The spot BTC ETF has seen a net inflow of $2.1 billion for 8 consecutive days, endowing Bitcoin with a resistance property similar to that of a macro safe haven asset. But around April 28th, the BTC ETF experienced a net outflow of $263 million, abruptly ending its 9-day streak of inflows, perhaps at an unknown turning point. Some ETF allocators have already felt the suppression of the macro environment. The knockoff market is facing macro pressure and doesn't even have the capital to retreat. When crude oil and inflation work together to cut interest rates, knockoffs are almost impossible to maintain their current market value. The knockoff market is purely a risky asset without the protective barrier of ETFs, relying entirely on liquidity expansion and the spillover of risk preferences. The rise of RAVE and Binance Life can actually be seen as the banker's attempt to grab the last bit of gold before the storm. We may see a worse liquidity environment in the cryptocurrency market.