Phyrex|4月 28, 2026 20:59
The oil price of WTI has exceeded $100 today, and it is not far from my third replenishment at $103. I don't know if I can make up for it. Short selling WTI at high prices is my main idea at present, mainly because I believe the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will not be long-term. The extension of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran shows that neither side wants to continue fighting. The rise in oil prices should not exceed the blockade period of the war.
Additionally, there was news today that the United Arab Emirates has withdrawn from Opec+, which has caused some market volatility. However, in the long run, the UAE's withdrawal is aimed at increasing production and is beneficial for reducing oil prices. Currently, the main reason for the rise in WTI is likely due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
In addition, although the United States and Iran have not yet reached a settlement, Iran has revised its peace proposal after the United States rejected it. It should be announced in the next few days, which is good news for the comprehensive peace between the United States and Iran and the smooth passage of the Strait of Hormuz. As long as it is still being pushed forward, there is a possibility of success.
Thursday morning is the latest Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, and there will be no interest rate adjustment, which is already a consensus in the market. There should not be much change in April compared to March, and Powell will continue to preside over it. More likely, there will be questions about whether the Fed will raise interest rates due to the rise in oil prices. From now on, it is unlikely that the Fed will use the option of raising interest rates.
Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, the turnover rate has increased slightly, but the trading volume is not very large. It should be because some investors who bought at the bottom recently due to the ceasefire between the United States and Iran have started to leave, and the lack of updated positive news has led to a pullback in both the US stock market and cryptocurrency. This is also a normal thing. Currently, BTC will still be affected by the macro and economic factors of the United States.
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