Breaking news: UAE is withdrawing from OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries). Now, it will not be restricted by oil production, and millions of barrels of oil will flood the market. Let's analyze the impact of this news on oil prices and Bitcoin? Firstly, the UAE's withdrawal from OPEC is negative for oil prices, but the short-term impact is limited. The withdrawal only started on May 1st, and the increase in production is also "gradually" carried out, not immediately entering the market. The current oil price is still above $107, and the geopolitical risk premium has not yet been eliminated. The problem of blocked passage through the Strait of Hormuz has not been resolved, which is the fundamental reason for the high oil prices. Secondly, Bitcoin is a medium-term positive, but it requires time for transmission. The transmission chain of oil price decline → inflation expectation cooling → interest rate cut expectation heating up → risk asset rise is established. But we need to see a substantial drop in oil prices in order to change market expectations. Thirdly, the core variables of short-term Bitcoin are still the US Iran negotiations and the Federal Reserve. The withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates is a long-term structural change, and the core of short-term trading is still the FOMC on April 29-30 and the CPI on May 13. Bitcoin is currently fluctuating between 77000-78000, and it is still difficult to break through the $80000 mark. The impact on our planned layout's mid line empty space strategy: There is basically no impact. This news is a 'long-term positive', not a 'short-term catalyst'. It takes time for oil prices to fall, and it also takes time to transmit to CPI and the Federal Reserve. Before the end of the fourth wave and the opening of the fifth wave window (mid May), this news is unlikely to become a catalyst for pushing prices above 82000. The mid line short position strategy remains unchanged, and we will continue to wait for the mid May turnaround window.