Murphy|4月 28, 2026 04:40
STH-RP suddenly accelerated downward pressure, dropping $1,000 in just 2 days from 4/25 to 4/27, and is now around $79,000. The 7-day rate of change is -2%, whereas it had been hovering around -0.5% for a long time (see Figure 1).
Why did STH-RP suddenly accelerate downward? And what impact will it bring?
If the 7-day rate of change is 0%, then STH-RP would be a straight line. The higher the rate of change, the steeper the curve. The reason for this outcome is that a large number of short-term holdings suddenly "moved," and they moved at a loss.
Figure 2 confirms our hypothesis: after BTC broke through $76,000, short-term holders experienced a wave of accelerated distribution in a loss state, with a 7-day average of 77,000 coins.
Swapping high positions for low positions inevitably creates selling pressure in the short term, but in the long term, it helps reduce resistance during upward movements.
As we mentioned yesterday, when the price approaches STH-RP, a large number of holdings become sensitive to it, turning it into a key psychological threshold.
When STH-RP accelerates downward, it forces "price action" to make a choice: either break through or pull back. For example, yesterday, the choice was to pull back first. But regardless of the path, the ultimate result will always be: when there's no room left to retreat, it will break through decisively.
After that, the trend direction becomes clear.
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