CTA buying has stalled a bit this week. Looking at NeilSethi's reference to Goldman Sachs model data around the 24th, it shows that large-scale buying in the early stage has been basically executed, and CTA positions have shifted from obvious short positions to near historical high long positions. The future buying potential has significantly cooled down, turning into neutral or slight selling pressure. Latest CTA estimation key points (based on Goldman Sachs model in late April, updated on April 24th) 1) Current position: CTA position on SPX is approximately+32.9 billion US dollars (close to historical high of 48.9 billion US dollars), which has fully increased and rebuilt from a short position of -30 billion US dollars in early April. 2) Actual past purchases: Global equity purchases reached $86 billion in mid April (the top five in history), with significant contributions from US stocks; Overall CTA net purchase of approximately $53 billion in global equity in April (SPX approximately $32 billion) Expected for the next week/month (latest scenario) (buying has significantly decreased): 1) Flat scenario: A slight sale of approximately - $0.6 billion next week and - $280 million next month (previously predicted to be+$1.35 billion). 2) Upward scenario (up, significant upward movement): Next week - $110 million, next month nearly unchanged - $0.8 billion (there were still significant buying before). 3) Downward scenario: Next week - $0.4 billion (previously+$1.65 billion bought), next month sell - $3.72 billion. Overall trend: Goldman Sachs' model shows that CTA has turned into a potential seller with "buy fuel exhausted", especially under greater pressure in the medium-term downward scenario. But short-term support still exists, depending on whether the trend continues The movement of funds needs to be monitored. In the past three and a half weeks, the US stock market has experienced what should be the strongest rapid rebound in history. The core logic is: 1) Macroscopically, it is the emotional boost brought by the start of ceasefire negotiations and the lack of further deterioration of the situation 2) Fundamentally, we are facing the largest computing power shortage wave in recent years. https://((x.com))/qinbank/status/2043910896351883636? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A has shifted the market focus back to fundamentals, causing many stocks to fall into the high cost-effectiveness range, and the combination of financial report expectations. Before the above two factors, https://((x.com))/qinba frank/status/2043706920281006429? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A has also been discussed 3) On the financial level, CTA has seen a rapid influx of passive buying funds since April. Now the funds for replenishing positions have been almost exhausted. Going further requires new momentum and catalysis, which is reflected in the financial reports of several major tech stocks this week https://(((x.com)))/qinbafrank/status/2048260457996358038? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A needs to enable the market to verify that it can make money with huge capital expenditures and has stronger future profitability. Simply put, the Goldman Sachs Futures Strats model (such as Garrett) adjusts momentum thresholds in real-time, and the recent SPX rebound has caused all major thresholds to turn positive, triggering a historic level of rapid replenishment. But as the position approaches its extreme value, the subsequent mechanical demand weakens, and the market shifts more towards fundamentals (such as this week's heavyweight financial report) and geopolitical risk drivers.