Today's market On Monday, let's take a look at the current overall situation .. Last week, we saw a 7% symmetrical trend online, aiming for a short-term cost line on the chain around 8W Now it has been achieved . https://(x.com)/Mrluanluan/status/2046179815800152519 Figure 1 shows that this wave from 65k has always been relatively symmetrical. The upward trend is usually around 7-8%, while the downward trend is currently between 3-4%. The deepest wave is 6%. Currently, after 79k, the 3.8% retracement seems to have completed an average retracement. But now this position is quite delicate Can we watch another 7%? I'm not sure. The specific issue lies in Figure 2 Figure 2 shows the recent price amplification, which has been discussing the two important cost lines on the chain in recent weeks - the true average price of the blue line and the short-term average cost of the red holder . I haven't been going on 79k recently, not just because 80k has an important integer level . In fact, this is currently the most densely populated decision-making area in the market, with people who are trapped in 80k bottom fishing and 65k bottom fishing wanting to sell and operate in this area . Various technical analysts, on chain analysts, and their readers ... Everyone is staring at this location, focusing on potential selling points. So it's like that There is no way to make predictions, it can only be left to the market. From a historical perspective, these two cost ranges are not so easy to break through at once. However, maintaining a high sideways trend over the weekend seems to give sustained hope to the bulls. Not as resolute as when 98k first touched the short-term holding cost level of red .. ------------- Based on this week's news, it is the financial report day for US stock giants. On Wednesday, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, and META will release their financial reports on the same day. On Thursday, AAPL Their financial report determines whether the current narrative of AI will be affected in the short term. It also depends on the direction of funds .. However, excluding the impact of financial reports, the overall funding situation has been consistently online for the past two weeks. Continuous inflow of ETF (Figure 4) Micro strategy continuous buying The funding rate remains negative (short positions become fuel) ---- So from a general perspective, we should maintain our previous judgment and break through 80k to stand firm for more than a week. It may be necessary to really plan for a bear to bull transition If you can't break through 80k, then go wherever you want . The recent view of on chain analysts is that the probability of 60k being the bottom is increasing, and the probability of the 54k position below the already realized price is decreasing . Unless there is another thunderstorm? Is aave's thunder counted? Does it seem to have little impact? ---- So the overall judgment of the general direction . If there is a thunderous valuation in this week's financial report, it may be another opportunity for bulls to buy the dip. If we can stand firm at 80k, the potential target for the previous wave is around 82k. The small blue box interval in Figure 3 .. A research report that has been bullish since two weeks ago stated that the ultimate goal of this wave is 88k, which is the blue box range in Figure 3 This is too far away, I can only take one step at a time and slowly let the market wait for verification. As we get closer, let's first see if 80k can stand firm If we stand firm here, there will be plenty of fuel for the bears ..