This is not much different from the view I shared in mid-January. ETF inflows are picking up again, but it’s important to look at the underlying composition of those flows. At the moment, total net inflows are effectively being driven by IBIT. Meanwhile, key ETF such as FBTC, BITB, and ARKB are not showing meaningful increases. What did IBIT flow look like when Bitcoin was at its peak? It recorded the strongest inflows since November 2024. However, ironically, this very signal ended up misleading market participants when forming their expectations. In contrast, liquidity flowing through FBTC and ARKB had already been weakening over an extended period. This matters because FBTC and ARKB flows are often executed through market makers (MM), which directly impact price, rather than OTC channels making them far more significant in terms of price dynamics. So what about now? Objectively, it doesn’t look much different from the conditions we saw in September–October last year and again in January. Does that mean institutions using IBIT are wrong? Not necessarily. What we may be overlooking is that their time horizon and price framework could be very different from those of typical market participants. What appears to be a large downside move within a bearish cycle to the market may simply be an accumulation phase for them. What is clear, however, is that this seemingly “obvious” framework became a critical trap at the market top in October last year. @ForeDex_Global(mignolet)