From a macro and event perspective, it can be said that the real bear bottom of the pancake will be even lower; Is $60000 the bottom? Recently, Da Bing has been hitting 79 and is close to 8. Although geopolitical warfare is slowly moving towards peace and there may be twists and turns in the middle, there is a lack of new positive expectations. And there is also a need to take profit from short positions around the top 70. So the upward momentum is weak. If geopolitics can come to an end, then macro monetary policy will dominate the market. We assume that the geopolitical situation will end in May and the impact on the market will decrease. But we don't know where the interest rate cut is yet. The first is when Walsh will take office. After he takes office, he will cut interest rates according to Trump's advice, or another Powell needs to see inflation and data. So even if May ends, it's unlikely that the macro data for June will match, so there's only July left. If there is a rate cut in July, this expectation may start to hype up in June, which is definitely a positive expectation for the big pie, and the price can be expected. But there are also variables inside, such as when Walsh will take office and his attitude after he actually becomes the chairman of the Federal Reserve. We can only watch while walking. If there is no interest rate cut in July, then postpone it to September. So that is to say, from now until the expectation of interest rate cuts starts to hype up, the market is still in a period of volatility, just like the current market sentiment is still influenced by geography. Moreover, not to mention the second geopolitical negotiation that is currently unknown, just as the negotiations were postponed and oil prices rose above 96%, the big pie fell. During this period of volatility, anything can happen. Once emotions deteriorate and liquidity is insufficient, the market may not be able to withstand it, and it is unclear how much it will fall; Conversely, it may also be boosted, but without new positive stimuli, the boost will be weak. In other words, even if it reaches the number 79 or 8, it may still go down. So back to the question at the beginning, will it be lower or will 60000 yuan be the bottom? The possibility of fluctuations during this period before the new positive hype is greater, but the magnitude is uncertain. One thing that is probably certain is that with the end of geopolitics, inflation can be controlled, and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, there will definitely be an upward trend for the market. Of course, if you want to pursue better profit maximization, you can look at personal allocation of positions. Patience is required.