HTX DeepThink: Expectations of interest rate cuts postponed until September, intensifying structural differentiation in the cryptocurrency market According to TechFlow, on April 27th, Chloe (@ Chloe Talk1), a columnist for HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that the current macro framework of the cryptocurrency market has shifted from "liquidity trading waiting for interest rate cuts" to a "high-pressure environment of longer high interest rates, inflation stickiness, and war shocks". The latest Reuters survey shows that most economists have postponed their expectations of interest rate cuts until after September, and nearly one-third believe that there will be no interest rate cuts throughout the year. The core reason is that the energy prices triggered by the Middle East war have once again risen along the inflation path, limiting the policy space of the Federal Reserve. This change directly weakens the two major logics that previously supported cryptocurrency assets: the expectation of loose liquidity and the downward path of interest rates. The combination of high oil prices and PCE inflation expectations has led to a continuous upward revision, increasing the probability of interest rates remaining high or even prolonged. The rise in discount rates is synchronized with the contraction of risk budgets, resulting in a decrease in marginal capital inflows into the cryptocurrency market and overall pressure on high volatility assets. It is worth noting that this round is not a typical "safe haven market". Despite the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, gold and cryptocurrency did not rise in sync, but instead showed a combination of rising interest rates and widespread pressure on risky assets, indicating that the market is in a stage of "liquidity contraction" rather than "safe haven rotation". From the perspective of market structure, the differentiation is very obvious: BTC benefits from institutional funds, ETF allocation, and macro hedging narratives, showing relatively resilient characteristics, but its trend still highly relies on the liquidity of the US dollar and has not deviated from its risk asset attributes; ETH relies more on on on on chain activity and capital flow, and its elasticity is limited in the current environment; Most altcoins, especially AI narrative assets and projects without cash flow support, are still in the stage of valuation compression and continuous loss of liquidity. Overall, the cryptocurrency market is entering a stage of "high interest rates+high uncertainty", and the short-term trend is not a comprehensive rise, but rather structural differentiation and amplified volatility. The key turning point depends on three variables: whether oil prices can fall, whether interest rate expectations can be restored, and whether the policy path can be clear. Prior to this, the market may continue to show a pattern of BTC's relative dominance and widespread pressure on imitations. Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment product.