Back home from the Hong Kong trip, recharged and catching up on the geopolitical situation over the past couple of days. The U.S. and Iran are still deadlocked on direct talks and conditions, with negotiations downgraded on both sides. Orders for a 'strong' strike on Lebanon are testing the three-week ceasefire agreement. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked by Iran, while the U.S. continues to obstruct Iran's oil exports. The situation is still dangerous. Trump faced an assassination attempt—though he wasn’t injured in the shooting incident, could this impact the geopolitical trajectory in the Middle East? And now, there are only a few hours left until the stock index futures market opens tomorrow. The outlook for peace remains uncertain. If there’s no major development tonight, the stock index futures market will likely face pressure at tomorrow’s open, and oil prices may continue to rise. Of course, this could also be an opportunity to short at the highs. Like I’ve been saying, buying the dips isn’t very cost-effective. Geopolitics will eventually return to the path of continued negotiations, but the process will be bumpy, causing volatility in risk markets. Looking ahead, there’s also the Fed meeting next week. Of course, there won’t be a rate cut in April. This aligns with what I’ve been saying—unless there’s a new expectation, even if geopolitics moves toward resolution, the upside is limited. Bitcoin faces resistance at $78K–$81K. Plus, it’s still too early to talk about rate cuts. Let’s first see when Walsh officially takes office. In addition to the Fed meeting, we’ve got earnings reports from major tech companies like Apple and Amazon. Next week is shaping up to be a super week. For now, though, the focus remains on the progress of negotiations and the navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz. Ultimately, it’s all about the impact on oil prices. Personally, I’m still leaning toward a strategy of shorting at $95 or even above $100. Let’s hope the war reaches some kind of resolution soon.