On Polymarket, predictions are often super accurate, and people think it’s because of 'crowd wisdom.' But after research by Roberto Gomez Cram and others, there’s an interesting discovery: it has nothing to do with so-called 'crowd wisdom.' What actually drives the prices to be accurate is about 3% of the accounts. This small group of people truly knows their stuff, has insider info, or is insanely good at analysis. They’re the ones driving price discovery and pushing the odds in the most accurate direction. It’s not an 80/20 rule where 20% make money and 80% lose. It’s more like 3% make money, and 97% lose. The vast majority of players are like flipping a coin, contributing very little to accuracy. But even though this group isn’t skilled, they’re addicted, and they generate massive trading volume. Essentially, they’re funding the 3%. The 3% are making money off the 97%, while also pulling prices to the correct levels. Most players provide liquidity, while a few pros feast.