[Polymarket: 'Probability of a Permanent Peace Agreement Between the U.S. and Iran by April 30' Drops to 4%, Down 7% in 24 Hours] Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability of Polymarket's 'Permanent Peace Agreement Between the U.S. and Iran by April 30' is only 4%, having dropped 7% in the past 24 hours. As of now, the total trading volume for the event contract 'Permanent Peace Agreement Between the U.S. and Iran by the Specified Date' has exceeded $54 million. The rules for this event contract are as follows: If Iran and the United States reach a permanent peace agreement by the specified date (11:59 PM Eastern Time), the market will resolve as 'Yes'; otherwise, it will resolve as 'No.' A permanent peace agreement is defined as any agreement explicitly stating that military hostilities between the U.S. and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or any agreement using similar language to clearly indicate that military hostilities between the U.S. and Iran will permanently end. Temporary agreements or agreements that do not include a final resolution to permanently end military hostilities between the U.S. and Iran (e.g., a two-week ceasefire extension announced on April 7, 2026) do not qualify. The primary sources of information for this market are official statements from the U.S. and Iranian governments, though other credible reports may also be referenced. Previously, U.S. President Trump stated that he would not bother going to Pakistan just to secure a worthless agreement from Iran. Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before pricing.