Natural Trading Evening Market Insights

BTC Market Interpretation and Prediction on April 26, 2026 The core conclusion of today's market trend In the short term, both long and short sides of Bitcoin are deadlocked, and it is recommended to adopt a wait-and-see approach; Mid line aspect: Mid line short selling strategy - the strongest bearish catalyst on the road! Short term, currently in a key price range of long short game stage, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, it is recommended to focus on wait-and-see and short sell when high. Mid line, currently experiencing multiple macro bearish resonances, the logic of the mid line short position layout is being strengthened: Firstly, the $81000 to $90 million selling pressure wall is the core defense line of the bearish main force. The delay in breaking through the $80000 mark is direct evidence of the bearish heavy defense. Secondly, the fourth wave of dead cat rebound at the weekly level has been going on for 78 days. On the daily level, there has been a slight deviation in volume and price, and the price has approached the strong gravity zone of the 0.786-1 axis of the Fibonacci uptrend channel, where there is heavy pressure. Thirdly, the stalemate in US Iran negotiations and the high price of crude oil at $106 continue to suppress risky assets. The negotiations are deadlocked, the ceasefire has expired, and high oil prices have increased global inflationary pressure, dampening expectations of interest rate cuts. Fourth, the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike in June is a potential "Rocket level" negative catalyst. Historical data clearly shows that after every interest rate hike in Japan, Bitcoin plummeted by at least 20%. The current swap market pricing has a 65% probability of raising interest rates to 1.00% in June, and Japan's core inflation is accelerating, increasing the urgency of raising interest rates. Layout conditions for centerline empty spaces: 1) Wait for the price to rebound to the 78500-79500 range (may not reach 80000); 2) Wait for clear bearish signals to appear (daily long upper shadow line, volume depletion, false breakthrough confirmation); 3) Waiting for the Bank of Japan's meeting on April 28th to release the signal of interest rate hike in June; The midline goal remains unchanged: the first goal is 7000-71500, and the ultimate goal is 45000-50000. Hey guys, what do you think? ① Will BTC surge to 80000 or rebound next week? ② What is your position logic and plan? Welcome to reply and discuss, I will select high-quality replies to review together!