We've experienced the first-ever ETF-driven $BTC bull market in history, And what follows will be the first-ever ETF-driven $BTC bear market in history. If a recession happens, or even just an increase in macro risks, the outflow speed of ETFs will be extremely dramatic. - Investment advisors will rotate client assets into safer options - Pension funds will reduce risk exposure - Family offices will treat $BTC like other high-volatility assets and reduce holdings Additionally, the selling pressure from ETFs is the purest form of spot selling. Looking at current trends, 2026 is the mid-term turning point when ETF inflows shift to outflows. In 2024, ETFs brought in 550–600K $BTC, approximately $36.2B. In 2025, ETFs brought in 200–250K $BTC, approximately $22.94B. By 2026, 40% of the year has passed, but only about 20–30K $BTC has flowed in. This aligns almost perfectly with gold ETFs. After the 2009 financial crisis, gold ETFs saw net inflows of over 600 tons. But by 2011–2012, global gold ETFs quickly hit a low point, with only 110 tons flowing in during 2011, followed by a massive sell-off of 880.8 tons in 2013. Same four-year cycle. In fact, the inflow and outflow models of $BTC and gold ETFs are almost identical. After the 2009 financial crisis, gold ETFs saw net inflows of over 600 tons. But by 2011–2012, global gold ETFs quickly hit a low point, with only 110 tons flowing in during 2011, followed by a massive sell-off of 880.8 tons in 2013. Same four-year cycle, one is physical gold, the other is digital gold.