Three dimensional integrated system analysis: Bitcoin short-term and medium-term trend prediction and trading strategy (April 25th) Bitcoin is still one last shot away, the bulls will rest after touching around 80000, and the main force of bears will enter! Below, we will analyze and summarize the short-term and medium-term price trends and market conditions of Bitcoin from four aspects. 1、 News: US Iran negotiations are deadlocked, and crude oil prices are soaring! The US Iran situation remains an important variable in the market, but the latest data shows that the prospects for peace talks are not optimistic. Trump's tough stance: In an interview with CNBC on April 21, Trump stated that the United States is in a "very, very strong negotiating position" in negotiations with Iran, demanding that Iran hand over its enriched uranium stockpile and stop attempting to control the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said 'a great deal will eventually be reached', implying that Iran has' no other choice '. The progress of the negotiations is unclear: the US delegation led by Vice President Vance had planned to travel to Islamabad for a second round of negotiations, but Iran has consistently refused to participate. The ceasefire agreement that came into effect on April 8th expired on the evening of April 22nd Eastern Time. Soaring oil prices: Brent crude oil prices have risen to $106.01 per barrel, up 2.25% from the previous day and about 59% from the same period a year ago. The soaring oil prices are direct evidence of the continued suppression of geopolitical risks and one of the sources of inflationary pressure. 2、 Short term trend judgment (today and tomorrow) The core state of the current market is that after a large-scale clearance of bears, the upward momentum has been exhausted. CryptoQuant explicitly stated, "This uptrend is not driven by new spot buying, but rather by a bearish trend of approximately $1.19 billion in the futures market. As long as prices rely more on derivatives rather than stable spot verification, the market structure will remain easily reversible If the price cannot break through the 78500-79000 range: it may retrace to 76000-76500, or even test 75000-75500. If the price falls below 75500: it will confirm that the upward channel has been disrupted and may accelerate the downward trend; Is there any new progress between the US and Iran over the weekend: it is a short-term catalyst, but the market already has expectations for the ongoing conflict. 3、 Mid line trend judgment (next 1-4 weeks) The fourth wave of rebound has entered its final stage, and the upward momentum has significantly declined. Under the positive expectations of the US Iran negotiations, the price of Bitcoin surged to around 80000 and then fell back, with a probability of 50-55%. It cannot effectively break through 80000 US dollars and retraces to 7500-76000. The fourth wave of dead cat rebound at the weekly level will reach its peak. In addition, the expiration of $8.47 billion in options, the clearance of $1.19 billion in short positions, and sluggish spot demand - all three signals point to the depletion of upward momentum. If the price cannot break through $80000 in bulk, the fourth wave of rebound is likely to be nearing its end. 4、 Mid line empty single strategy - prepare layout The $90 million selling wall at the $81000 price of Bitcoin is the core defense line of the bearish main force. The $1.19 billion short position has been cleared, the futures premium has disappeared, and the demand for spot goods is weak, all three signals point to the depletion of upward momentum. Layout conditions: Wait for the price to rebound to the 78500-79500 range (may not reach 80000); Wait for clear bearish signals to appear (daily long upper shadow line, volume depletion, false breakthrough confirmation); Wait until the main quantity of the bulls can be depleted. The midline goal remains unchanged: the first goal is 7000-71500, and the ultimate goal is 45000-50000.