After running outside for a week, there were fewer updates on the US Iran war, but fortunately the overall trend is still following the framework analyzed last week. That is to say, Trump's continuous posting last Friday was totally tacit. The next day, he was beaten by the Revolutionary Guards. Then, from the fixed and positive capital rate at the end of last week, the unilateral rise of the market started, and the WTI rose to 98.4 at the highest And the latest news just now said that the Iranian Foreign Minister is about to arrive in Pakistan to start a second round of talks, and oil prices have currently fallen. We are currently unable to confirm the authenticity of this message, as the previous two negotiations have also been repeatedly falsified. But let's consider this as true, but it still cannot change the physical facts. We still only need to focus on whether the US naval blockade is in contact and whether the actual passage data in the Strait of Hormuz has rebounded. And negotiations are just creating opportunities for long positions to increase their holdings, after all, even if the strait is opened immediately today, the clearance of mines, and the replenishment of crude oil inventories in various countries can still support at least six months of high oil prices. At that time, the price difference will gradually decrease, so the recent trend towards long positions in crude oil is a friendly model. But looking at the current oil price of around 95, if we open higher in the short term, we may have to face the impact of the possible second meeting over the weekend. We can wait until the situation becomes clear next week to talk about it. For the long term, just keep holding on, as negotiations cannot resolve core contradictions and come up with executable solutions. Delaying is nothing more than continuing to fight. From the statement just made by Hegesi at the press conference, it still appears to be a dual strategy of military threat and diplomatic attraction. On the one hand, it is said that the second aircraft carrier joining the blockade+blockade continuing until the target is achieved+34 ships turning around+re laying mines will be considered a violation of the ceasefire; On the other hand, it is said that Iran has a historic opportunity and the initiative is in Iran's hands, which can be diplomatic or military; A typical negotiation strategy of both pulling and fighting. Iran is likely to participate in the second round of negotiations, but according to the disclosed information, the Speaker did not attend and only the Foreign Minister, compared to the highest level delegation consisting of Speaker Calibaf (team leader), Foreign Minister Alaghi, Central Bank Governor Hemati, and Defense Council Secretary Ahmadi An, who have a complete set of political, diplomatic, financial, and security dimensions in the previous round. This is a typical signal of specification downgrade. Because Iran knows that substantive results cannot be achieved through negotiations, but it cannot be labeled as ignoring peace talks and destroying peace, so it will definitely have symbolic talks. Alaghi was the chief technical negotiator for the 2015 JCPOA, and his expertise lies in the tug of war of nuclear technology details. His solo appearance may imply a narrowing of the agenda to "technical discussions on nuclear issues" and "ceasefire extension", rather than involving issues such as compensation, unfreezing assets, and the sovereignty of Hormuz that require high-level decision-making. So the second round of negotiations is probably symbolic maintenance of dialogue+substantive procrastination. So when Alaguzi confirms his arrival, there will probably be a pullback in oil prices, which will be a good opportunity to increase.