In the live broadcast of Xiaobao Community: Chain Alert -11000 BTC flowed into the exchange in a single day! Under short-term selling pressure, institutions are still crazily buying

Click on the link to enter the meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/p/7277739262 1、 Market Overview Today, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated at a high level in the range of $77000-78000, having previously broken through the $76000 mark. The overnight price briefly rose to $78494, but quickly retreated to around $77700, showing a high-level consolidation pattern. Ethereum, on the other hand, has relatively weakened and gradually fallen from its peak, with an overall soft structure. Within 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has cleared approximately $588 million in leveraged positions, of which long positions amounted to approximately $399 million, accounting for nearly 68%, indicating that funds chasing long positions at high levels are experiencing a wash up. 2、 Message interpretation （1） Trump announces attendance at cryptocurrency related conferences The White House has revealed that US President Trump will deliver a speech at a cryptocurrency conference in Florida this Saturday. At the same time, Trump's latest remarks compare the world to a 'casino', and concerns in the crypto community about market manipulation risks are heating up. （2） Geopolitics: The ceasefire game between the United States and Iran is still ongoing Since April, the cryptocurrency market has been continuously affected by the ceasefire game between the United States and Iran. The US claims that the Strait of Hormuz is "fully open", but Iran's actual passage restrictions remain strict, and previous negotiations had broken down. On April 21st, Iran announced its resumption of negotiations. This geopolitical uncertainty has led to significant fluctuations in Bitcoin between $69000 and $78000. Today's news shows that Trump has stated that "the United States has fully controlled the Strait of Hormuz," but fundamental differences in the ceasefire agreement still exist. （3） Large option expiration approaching Today, Bitcoin and Ethereum options with a total face value of $98.7 billion will expire, including approximately 109000 BTC options. The maximum pain point price is $72000, and the put/call ratio is 0.93 (close to neutral), which means that a large number of positions are facing delivery and may trigger severe market volatility. （4） Bank for International Settlements issues regulatory warning In its latest report, the Bank for International Settlements pointed out that cryptocurrency service providers have evolved from peripheral roles in the global financial system to substantive financial intermediaries, and there is an urgent need to establish corresponding safeguard measures. The expectation of tightening regulation in the medium and long term is heating up. 3、 Outlook for Important Macro Events The FOMC interest rate decision and Powell's press conference on April 29th are likely to affect liquidity expectations and risk appetite; Trump's speech at the crypto conference this Saturday may have short-term emotional catalysis; The ongoing game of ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran may trigger bi-directional fluctuations in oil prices and risk premiums at any time; As of now, the cryptocurrency market has shown structural differentiation characteristics: Multiple factors: Bitcoin ETF net inflows for 8 consecutive days, accelerated institutional allocation, entry of traditional financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley, and although there have been fluctuations in the US Iran ceasefire negotiations, they have not yet escalated further. The overall reluctance of coin holders to sell is high, driving BTC to fluctuate at high levels. Shortside factor: Facing nearly $100 billion level option delivery today, the probability of short-term changes has increased; Ethereum ETF funds have turned around and flowed out, exacerbating the divergence from BTC trends; Geopolitics may experience fluctuations, and emotions remain unstable. The market generally believes that the next 24 to 48 hours will be the key window for judging short-term direction. If Bitcoin breaks through the independent market and effectively breaks through $80000, it may trigger a new round of bullish sentiment; If you continue to hover or even fall within the range of $78000-80000, you need to be alert to the possibility of a rapid pullback after the short-term "last pull". Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.