BITWU.ETH 🔆
BITWU.ETH 🔆|Apr 24, 2026 02:38
I have found that many people are still too obsessed with the relative bottom price of Bitcoin, For example, if Bitcoin drops below 50000, he is afraid and will continue to decline, saying he will wait for 40000, but he will never be able to get into the car. Actually, I have always had a personal viewpoint: when buying Bitcoin or any other core asset, don't be too obsessed with the price! Price is just a representation, does it have the ability to cross cycles over the long term? How much time are you planning to spend to exchange for its future space? If you don't understand these questions, you won't be able to hold on to the lowest price. If you understand these questions, you won't pin all your hopes on a "perfect low point". I personally started investing and buying BTC below 65000. Now that the AHR999/AM120 related prices have broken through, BTC is around 78000, and many people are starting to ask: Is this location still worth buying? My answer is simple: if your cycle is 4 or 10 years instead of 4 or 10 days, then of course it's worth it. But the key is not whether to buy now. The key is to establish a buying system that will not be destroyed by emotions. one ️⃣ Accurately copying the bottom is essentially a kind of delusion The biggest characteristic of the market is uncertainty. Do you think the optimal solution is: Wait until below a certain price before buying But in reality, this strategy is very fragile. Because you can't be sure if the market will give you that price. Even if given, you cannot be sure if you will dare to buy it at that time. So the truly mature strategy is not to pursue the best, but to accept suboptimal solutions. Leave some redundancy. Leave a little margin of safety. Leave some space for 'not following your script'. Many people lose in investment, not because they see the wrong direction, but because they are too eager to wait for a perfect answer. But the market never gives perfect answers. It only provides fuzzy intervals. two ️⃣ There is no 'precise point', only 'relative interval' exists The 'best entry point' that many people understand is the lowest price. But the truly actionable 'best entry zone' is actually: Buying may not necessarily lead to a rise in horse prices; But the space for further decline is relatively limited; Even if you are trapped in the short term, it will not affect your long-term holding mentality and cash flow. This is what high cost-effectiveness means. Corresponding to market sentiment, it usually consists of four words: Tear and silence. Some people curse, some cut flesh, some pretend to be dead, and some no longer want to see their accounts. Everyone will no longer discuss sudden wealth, only talk about cost recovery. At this point, the market is actually approaching a relatively safe position. three ️⃣ What is relative bottom? The relative bottom is often not the moment of a sharp drop. When there is a sharp drop, the emotions are still very intense. The truly unbearable thing is the 'garbage time' after the sharp decline. You will see several features: The trading volume is very low. Emotions are very cold. The fluctuation is very small. The account hardly changes every day. The market feels like it's dead. No one wants to discuss. No one wants to build a warehouse. No one believes that the market will come back. I call this stage: Garbage time. But experience tells me: The longer the garbage time, the closer it is to the bottom. This period of time is torture for most people. Because there is no money to be made, no hope to be seen, and no feedback. But for those with a system, this is the most comfortable window for building a warehouse. Because the market has finally quieted down. You don't have to snatch it. No need to chase. No need to prove oneself. Just follow the plan and pick up the chips bit by bit. four ️⃣ The truly replicable warehouse building method: space+time How to better arrange storage space? The core has only four words: Space+time. First, set two anchor points: The first one is the initial establishment point: it is recommended to use MA120 as the benchmark. The second one is the maximum tolerance point. for example Your initial warehouse location is 75000. Your maximum warehouse position is 55000. The $20000 space in the middle is not for guessing, but for planning. I will walk two lines at the same time: The first line: spatial dimension. For example, for every 1000 drops, add a little. The more you fall, the more you buy. This way, you won't be completely empty during the decline, nor will you run out of bullets at the beginning. Second line: Time dimension. For example, adding a fixed amount every week. Regardless of whether the price has dropped sharply or not, as long as it is still in the relatively low range defined by you, continue to execute. Why is it necessary to have two dimensions? Because the most counterintuitive aspect of a bear market is: You thought it would plummet, but it just went sideways. You have the bullets ready, but the price doesn't give you a chance. If you only look at the space, it may never fall to your buying point, and you will never be able to buy enough. If you only look at time, it may continue to decline and you may feel like you bought too early. So the best way is to walk on two legs. Use price drops to increase buying power. Also, use the passage of time to ensure that you stay in the car continuously. The ultimate goal is only one: When the market is at its quietest and no one wants to buy, set the position to a "just full" state. A little more, you can't handle extreme situations. If it's any less, you'll miss the cycle repair again. This is what we call: Full position under controllable risk. five ️⃣ The so-called 'infinite bullets' are not about having more money, but about having a good system Many people envy others for having unlimited bullets. But the true infinite bullets are often not about money. But it was planned in advance. Know when to buy. Know how much to buy. Know how much to buy per week. Know how much the worst-case scenario can withstand. I also know that I am not here to guess the lowest point, but to obtain a sufficiently excellent long-term cost. Based on my own experience: As long as you build warehouses in an orderly and phased manner using "space+time" during the dead end stage of the market, The final comprehensive cost is unlikely to be much higher than the lowest market price. Even many times, it may not be around 10% higher than the lowest price. And this result is already good enough. Because what ordinary people should truly pursue is not to buy at the lowest point. But rather, on the premise of controllable risks, obtaining a position that is cheap enough in the long run. Finally, to summarize: Investment is not about finding the perfect answer in an uncertain world. Investment is in an uncertain world, using planning, discipline, and execution to switch to a position with a high probability of not dying and long-term compounding. So, don't always think about copying to the end. The bottom is never a point. The bottom is a period of garbage time where no one wants to wait, no one wants to believe, and no one wants to continue buying. Can you keep picking up the chips during that time, It truly determines whether you will be in the car or on the roadside when the next cycle begins.
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