Latest panoramic simulation of the US Iran situation (4.24 daily version) Core Qualities: Cease fire exists in name only, comprehensive maximum pressure+long-term tug of war to promote talks, extremely low probability of full-scale hot war, low-intensity friction, strait blockade, and repeated news fluctuations will become the norm. 1、 The underlying logic of the current game (Trump+Iran two-way routine) US strategy (Trump): Deliberately releasing fake news of ceasefire extension, creating market volatility, seizing the initiative of public opinion, and shifting the responsibility for the breakdown of negotiations to Iran; Persist in maritime blockade>air strikes: using economic strangulation to drain Iran's wartime finances, with lower costs and less political risks than going to war directly; Verbal calls for peace talks on the 24th, but in reality there is no timetable for a ceasefire. Three aircraft carriers are gathering in the Middle East, ready for surgical strikes at any time, using military deterrence to force Iran to bow down; We absolutely do not want to engage in a full-scale ground war due to domestic elections and financial pressure from war. We only want controllable deterrence and negotiation chips. Iran's strategy (tough countermeasures): Expose the lies of the US side, refuse unconditional negotiations, and stick to the bottom line: the US military will not participate in the conference until the blockade of Hormuz is lifted; 100% global combat readiness, strict control of cross-strait navigation, and use oil lifeline to counter US inflation and global energy order; Relying on local missiles, drones, and proxy armed forces, the long-term asymmetric consumption of the US military will never compromise its core nuclear and missile rights. 2、 Four scenario deduction+precise probability (4.24- next month) 1. Scenario 1: While fighting, talk, low-intensity long-term stalemate (highest probability: 60%) Trend: Negotiations on the 24th are likely to be fruitless/Iran absent; The US military continues to blockade the strait and carry out targeted strikes by agents; Iranian drones/missiles counterattack US military bases in the Middle East and tightly control the strait; No large-scale air combat, no ground combat; Features: Repeated verbal wavering of ceasefire, alternating between true and false news on the screen; The shipping in Hormuz continues to be restricted, and the strait is sometimes closed and sometimes loose; Oil price: fluctuating at a high level of 98-103 US dollars, the market has fully priced the geopolitical premium, and it is difficult to unilaterally soar and plummet; Scenario 2: Limited surgical strike+rapid retaliation rebound (medium probability: 25%) Trigger: The negotiations have completely broken down, Iran continues to detain ships/blockade the strait, and the deployment of three US aircraft carriers has been completed; Trend: The US military conducts precise airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and military bases; Iran retaliates against US military bases in the Gulf, Israeli targets, and blockades of shipping in the strait; Intensity: Quick strike, quick stop, no full-scale war, immediately return to negotiations and tug of war after finishing; Oil price: Short term surge of $105-110, synchronized rise of safe haven gold, followed by rapid decline and recovery; Scenario 3: Third party mediation achieves temporary easing (low probability: 12%) Trigger: Joint mediation between China, Russia, and Europe, pressure from Gulf countries, and the inability of both sides' economies to withstand consumption; Trend: US loosens partial blockade, Iran opens limited strait; Reaching a temporary control agreement and temporarily cooling down; Result: Only ceasefire without reconciliation, nuclear, missile, and regional power core differences remain unresolved, and soon return to confrontation; Oil price: rapidly falling by 92-98 US dollars. Scenario 4: Total War Outbreak (Very Low Probability: 3%) Triggering: massive misjudgment, Israel initiated conflict, comprehensive paralysis and loss of control of cross-strait shipping; Trend: US military airstrikes across the entire area+Iran's comprehensive blockade of the strait+missile coverage throughout the Gulf, global energy crisis erupts; Oil price: skyrocketing to $140-160, causing severe global financial turbulence; Reality constraints: The United States is unable to afford a long-term ground war in the Middle East, Iran does not want its regime to collapse, and global powers strongly intervene, making it almost impossible to happen; 3、 Predict key nodes for the day on April 24th Today's verbal talks by the US are likely to be mere formalities, and Iran will not attend the formal negotiations; The US three aircraft carrier formation has completed its deployment in the Middle East, maintaining the highest level of readiness, but will not initiate a war; The Strait of Hormuz is still strictly controlled and not fully open, and the traffic volume of oil tankers continues to be sluggish; The news continues to alternate between true and false: false news of positive peace → real hammer of escalating negative conflict, repeatedly harvesting market sentiment. 4、 Mid to long term (1-3 months) summary Zero mutual trust between the United States and Iran, completely opposing core demands: the United States wants Iran to abandon nuclear weapons and relinquish sovereignty over the strait; Iran wants to lift all sanctions, retain nuclear and missile rights, and control the security of the strait; Long term solidification of extreme pressure mode: normalization of blockade, normalization of friction, emotionalization of negotiations, and repetition of messages; Total war is always unlikely, but the risk of accidental firing remains high, and any unilateral misjudgment can trigger short-term violent fluctuations; Crude oil has been fluctuating around the $95-105 range for a long time, and the geopolitical premium is difficult to quickly dissipate.