The Bank of Japan plans to raise interest rates to 1.00% in June, and it’s almost a done deal—this will be the first time in 31 years! Market predictions show a 70% probability of a rate hike in June. History is chilling: in March and July 2024, and January 2025, every time the Bank of Japan raised rates, Bitcoin crashed 20%-30% within 4-6 weeks. The reason is simple—‘yen carry trade.’ For decades, global investors borrowed nearly free yen to buy high-yield assets like Bitcoin. Once Japan raises rates, funding costs skyrocket, and they’re forced to sell Bitcoin and convert back to yen to repay debt. Will history repeat itself this time? The answer is likely ‘yes,’ but the dynamics might be more complex. The key lies in the fact that this rate hike could coincide with the U.S. nearing a rate-cut cycle, creating a rare ‘Japan-U.S. policy scissors effect.’ History shows that a single shock is already intense, but when combined with a dual shock, the result is often extreme volatility. Either way, this ‘macro ticking time bomb’ is counting down. For mid-term traders, Japan’s rate hike is one of the most critical bearish catalysts to watch.