财经悟空|Apr 23, 2026 04:23
Big Bitcoin ($BTC) broke upward and tested the April 18 high of $78,300 before pulling back. It's currently hovering near that high, so watch out for the risk of a fake breakout. The current price action looks like a classic bull trap—breaking key trendlines and channel lines to create the illusion of a bull market, but in reality, it's just clearing out short positions.
Bullish logic:
$76,000 serves as the neckline of a W-bottom, and funding rates are negative. If $76,000 holds and doesn't break down, there’s potential for further upside. However, if the price drops below $76,000 again and forms a bearish structure, you could consider light short positions on the left side. If key support breaks further, confirming a trend reversal, then follow the momentum for bearish setups.
Bearish logic (more subjective preference):
Overall, this still looks like a wedge consolidation within a broader downtrend, with the possibility of continuing into a five-wave decline. The current price is near the structural channel line, which is likely a bull trap. When the trendline was broken, trading volume didn’t significantly increase, suggesting this is more of a range-bound move rather than a strong reversal. Be cautious of potential sharp drops.
Key dividing line:
$76,000 is the critical pivot point for bulls and bears. If it breaks down, the bullish logic fails, and the bearish outlook remains intact.
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