Deutsche Bank: A cautious Bank of Japan may choose to delay rate hikes

Jin10 Data reported on April 22 that numerous media outlets suggest the Bank of Japan may keep interest rates unchanged next week, prompting Deutsche Bank strategists to push back the expected rate hike timeline to June. Alex Lu and others stated: 'We believe this is the Bank of Japan's message conveyed through the media, indicating they have decided to delay rate hikes to avoid surprising the market.' Market pricing shows a very high threshold for unexpected scenarios, but while the Bank of Japan may wait to assess the impact of the Middle East conflict, keeping rates unchanged is merely a pause in the rate hike cycle, not the end of it. Economic conditions require further tightening of policies, as monetary policy remains highly accommodative. Terminal rate pricing remains above 1.5%, reflecting the market's view that maintaining rates is merely postponing the issue.