[QCP Group: BTC Rebound is Emotional Recovery, Macro and Geopolitical Uncertainty Remains Unresolved] According to QCP Group, BTC rebounded from an overnight low of approximately $75,000 to around $78,000, but this is more of an emotional recovery following eased ceasefire risks rather than a trend reversal. Former President Trump’s unilateral extension of the ceasefire with Iran and Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on data dependency and policy independence have temporarily reduced the probability of short-term escalation. However, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, Iran's stance on the extension remains unclear, and oil prices hovering near $100 are driving inflation stickiness and limiting room for easing. BTC futures open interest has surged significantly, and funding rates remain negative, indicating that short positions continue to accumulate at high levels. The implied volatility of front-end options is around 40, with the structure pointing more toward range-bound movement rather than a unilateral breakout. Overall, the conflict premium has not yet significantly dissipated.