The data only tells us an objective fact: the supply side is contracting - LTH has reduced profitable selling, STH has reduced loss making selling, so LTH's holdings have continued to increase for two consecutive months. But we should also know that the contraction of the supply side can only raise the lower limit, and the upper limit is determined by the rapid growth of the demand side. At present, no significant changes have been seen in terms of spot market trading volume, on chain activity, new investment holdings, or new address growth. On the contrary, it is CVD actively buying, contract long positions with negative premiums, and option Short Gamma hedging demand that collectively gather the short-term driving force. So, don't be anxious before it's time to shout 'Niu Hui'! Please do not selectively ignore this paragraph in the text: it does not mean that we should read too much without thinking. On the contrary, according to various data, BTC is currently approaching a strong resistance range and there is a demand for a pullback. Speaking in person: Still waiting for 20000 to 30000, it's time to wake up! Waiting for 40000 to 50000, you need to see that the probability is decreasing. If we consider 50000 to 60000 or 60000 as the bottom line, I think both options are currently possible. Let's open it at 50-50.