Can we wait until the 'last drop'? First, use data to deduce logic, and finally put forward personal opinions. I think the 'last drop' that my friends are looking forward to should refer to a significant drop of at least $200 million or more, similar to November last year or February this year, right? This kind of decline highlights systemic risks, and the so-called 'Rome wasn't built in a day' - starting from mid July 2025, the market can clearly feel the pressure brought by the distribution of LTH (Figure 1). This should not happen during the peak of a bull market. At this point, the demand side is gradually unable to withstand the continuous distribution behavior of the supply side. So the trend reversal after two shocks to the high point of $12 million is an inevitable result under long-term objective conditions. Subsequently, there were large-scale reductions in LTH holdings during the periods of 10/16-11/21 and 1/8-2/12, respectively; At the same time, a cliff like drop in prices is not difficult to understand. Returning to the present. We should note that from 2/12-4/21, LTH net holdings remained in a state of "net growth". There are only two reasons for this: LTH has significantly reduced distribution and even accumulated compared to before. STH is more willing to hold chips, thus becoming a new LTH. The combination of the above two reasons forms a "net growth", which means that while the activity decreases and the flow is scarce, the selling pressure also weakens. Therefore, under this premise, the expected 'last drop' is almost impossible to occur. Having ideas is not a problem, but we also need to respect objective facts. At present, the structural changes in LTH's net holdings during this period are very similar to those from July 28, 2022 to November 7, 2022 (Figure 2). After experiencing multiple consecutive selling waves of LTH, it entered a new accumulation period until another black swan event occurred. So, I'm not saying that there won't be a 'last drop', nor am I saying that we should blindly go long next. On the contrary, according to various data, BTC is currently approaching a strong resistance range and there is a certain demand for a pullback. My personal opinion is to express that until there are no unexpected situations that lead to another large-scale distribution of LTH, a sharp drop like in November last year or February this year is almost impossible to reproduce. Moreover, based on historical data, LTH net holdings have generally increased in the latter half of the bear market. The so-called 'later stage' refers to gradually entering a stage where there is nothing to sell. If you combine the "Investor Confidence Index" I shared yesterday, can we confirm each other? (Note: LTH mentioned in the article refers to long-term holders; STH: Short term holder; The distinguishing condition is: holding time greater than 155 days ± 10 days, data smoothing)